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The year in mispricing

What investors believed, what really happened, and what it says about risk.

Every December, we all replay the same ritual. Analysts revise narratives, and investors review performance to assess whether decisions they made were right or wrong.

Portfolios in which the right calls were made might be a little fatter, while a wrong call or two might have left portfolios a little leaner.

Of course, no one would have known at the beginning of 2025 what a tumultuous year we’d face. And the biggest surprise might be how major indices have scaled record highs in spite of uncertainty at many levels.

For most investors, 2025 felt like a moving target. For us, it wasn’t. The inputs changed, but the discipline didn’t.

We follow the number

At New Age Alpha, we take a very different view on the market and how it may play out over a year, and longer.

We apply actuarial logic to our risk management.

That starts with calculating an individual stock’s h-factor1 – a measure of how much human behavior has inflated a stock price beyond what it can realistically deliver. If a stock’s h-factor is too high – signaling overpricing – we avoid it, because we believe there is a higher probability it will underperform. When the h-factor is low, we see that as a sign the price is grounded in reality, and we consider the stock for investment.

So, to test this thesis, we started 2025 by tracking two baskets of stocks on the S&P 500. We split all the stocks in the index into five quintiles based on their h-factor, placing the highest and lowest h-factor quintiles into these two baskets.

These baskets weren’t static. Each month we recalculated h-factor scores for every stock and rebuilt both baskets accordingly, removing names that no longer qualified and replacing them with those that did.

That matters because it means the results weren’t driven by a single lucky winner or a one-time sector tilt. The constituents kept changing, but the process stayed the same. Any sustained outperformance therefore reflects the h-factor signal repeatedly identifying where expectations were too high versus grounded in reality.

The power of a low h-factor

What level of outperformance would you consider meaningful? And what performance would you expect from a basket of stocks across industry sectors, of varying market cap and growth prospects?

It’s a real-time illustration of how overconfidence creeps into pricing. The more investors believe a company can do no wrong, the more risk they unknowingly assume.

The h-factor isolates that risk before it shows up in returns and removes it without relying on prediction or opinion.

In 2025, up to November 19, an equal-weight portfolio of low h-factor S&P 500 stocks had gained 9.2%, while the high h-factor group managed only 2.6%. That six-point spread is the clearest proof of all: when you avoid overpriced expectations, returns take care of themselves.

PlaceholderThe graph compares two equal-weighted portfolios drawn from the S&P 500: stocks in the lowest h-factor quintile and stocks in the highest h-factor quintile. Over the period shown, the lower h-factor portfolio delivered higher returns, consistent with lower exposure to expectation-driven pricing risk.

For a $1 million portfolio, that gap equates to roughly $66,000 left on the table in less than a year. Not because of market turmoil, but because of human behavior embedded in prices.

Avoiding the losers isn’t a style, it’s a discipline

This isn’t a stock-picking trick or a smart-beta tweak. It’s a rules-based, repeatable way to strip out human assumptions that quietly drag performance.

We’re not saying the market is irrational. We’re saying investors become over-confident about which stories will play out, and price that certainty in. That overconfidence is costly.

The h-factor doesn’t try to outguess the future. It simply measures how far expectations have run ahead of reality.

And as 2025 has shown, that one insight – applied consistently – can mean the difference between meeting your clients’ goals or falling short, quietly and avoidably.

For advisors, this isn’t about picking the right narrative. It’s about having a framework that consistently offers clients a way to avoid the wrong ones.

Because in a market full of noise, being less wrong more often isn’t a style. It’s an edge.

How much h-factor risk is hiding in your portfolio?

To see how much, go to avoidthelosers.com to request free access to the h-factor system.

Mentions of any h-factor scores in this post are only to illustrate the h-factor and current market conditions.

For important disclosure information please click here.

1The h-factor™ is a 0–100% risk score showing the probability that a company will fail to deliver the growth already built into its stock price. A higher score means greater risk because investor behavior has driven the price beyond what the company’s history suggests it can deliver.

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What is the h-factor?

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Related reading

Research tools

SPACE demo

What is the h-factor?

Investment management reimagined

Ready for a deeper dive?

Request access to the h-factor System – our online tool that helps you discover a stock,
fund or index’s h-factor and create portfolios that help you to avoid the losers

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Disclosures

This document is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. We discuss general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic or market conditions and this should not be construed as research, securities recommendations or investment advice. Investors are urged to consult with their financial advisors before buying or selling any securities. Any forecasts or predictions are subject to high levels of uncertainty that may affect actual performance. Accordingly, all such predictions should be viewed as merely representative of a broad range of possible outcomes.

No client or prospective client should assume that any information presented in this document serves as the receipt of, or a substitute for, personalized individual advice from New Age Alpha or any other investment professional. Any charts, graphs or tables used in this fact sheet are for illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as providing investment advice and should not be construed by a client or a prospective client as a solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Current and future results may be lower or higher than those shown. An investor in the strategy may experience a loss. Information contained herein does not reflect the actual performance of the strategy. All research and data is simulated and should not be considered indicative of the skill of New Age Alpha. You cannot invest directly in an index. This presentation does not include the deduction of any fees and expenses because an index does not have any such fees or expenses, such as management fees or transactions costs. Investments in securities will generally include fees and expenses that will decrease investment returns. The performance results reflect the reinvestment of dividends and interest.

Human FactorTM “h-factorTM” scores measure the probability that, according to the Human Factor algorithm, a company cannot deliver the growth necessary to support its stock price and are not alone a recommendation about how to invest. The h-factor is a risk that comes from humans interpreting vague or ambiguous information in a systematically incorrect way. We believe that the h-factor causes stocks to be mispriced. We measure how the h-factor affects stock prices to identify which stocks are over or underpriced. We apply our methodology to over 4000 stocks and global indexes to identify a risk that impacts stock prices and is caused by human behavior. Investments not included in the h-factor tool may have characteristics similar or superior to those being analyzed. The accuracy of the h-factor is materially reliant on the integrity of the information utilized in the calculations, including any assumptions and or interpretations made by the user about the data. Data discrepancies, user assumptions, and data input by user can all contribute to differing outcomes. The underlying assumptions and processes presented herein are subject to change. Furthermore, any h-factor score referenced herein is a snapshot taken at a particular point in time and any analysis or information contained in such score is outdated and should not be relied upon as investment advice as such information may have materially changed since publication.


TRADEMARKS

All New Age Alpha trademarks are owned by New Age Alpha LLC. All other company or product names mentioned herein, including S&P®, Dow Jones®, and GICS are the property of their respective owners and should not be deemed to be an endorsement of any New Age Alpha product, portfolio or strategy. S&P® is a registered trademark of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC ("SPFS").

THIRD PARTY SOURCES

Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. It has been prepared solely for informational purposes on an “as is” basis and New Age Alpha does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. Investors should be aware of the risks associated with data sources and quantitative processes used in our investment management process. Errors may exist in data acquired from third party vendors.

DEFINITIONS

The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged market capitalization weighted index of 500 of the largest capitalized U.S. domiciled companies. The Leading Economic Index (LEI), is an index published monthly by The Conference Board. It is used to predict the direction of global economic movements in future months. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or the ‘VIX’ is a measure of the expected volatility of the US stock market. Market momentum is the rate at which the price of a security or market is changing and is measured using the S&P 500 Total Return Index. The NAA U.S. Large-Cap Core Index consists of 100 stocks selected by the New Age Alpha’s h-factor methodology from the S&P 500 Index and is calculated and published by S&P Dow Jones Indices. The NAA Allocation Index dynamically adjusts its allocation between equity, debt, and 100% cash, and is calculated and published by S&P Dow Jones Indices. The NAA USD High Yield Corporate Bond Index consists of 100 bonds selected by New Age Alpha’s h-factor methodology from the S&P Global USD High Yield Corporate Bond Index and is calculated and published by S&P Dow Jones Indices. The S&P U.S. Treasury Bond Current 2-Year Index is a one-security index comprising the most recently issued 2-year U.S. Treasury note or bond. The iBoxx USD Liquid Investment Grade Index consists of liquid USD investment grade bonds, which provide a balanced representation of the USD liquid investment grade corporate bond universe.



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