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Earnings Beat, Stock Falls: Why the Estimate Game is Rigged


Every earnings season, the same ritual plays out. Company beats estimates. Headlines celebrate. Stock falls anyway. Your client calls, confused: “They beat by 3 cents—why is it down 8%?”

Here's the answer: They just witnessed Wall Street's most elaborate theater production. And like most theater, it tells you nothing about reality.

The 75% “Success” Rate That Proves the Game is Rigged

The estimate game is rigged. Everyone knows it.

Analysts systematically lower estimates in the weeks before earnings. Not because companies suddenly got worse, but because beating estimates became more important than actual performance. The result? A company beating by 2 cents didn't perform well. They performed slightly better than a number designed to be beaten.

The S&P 500 beat rate runs 70-75% every quarter. Three-quarters of public companies consistently “beat expectations.” When 75% of students get an A, either the test is too easy or the grading is rigged. Wall Street chose the easy test.

The estimates aren't measuring performance. They're measuring the game.

The Real Question Nobody Asks

Here's the question the estimate game misses: Can this company deliver the growth indicated by its stock price?

Analysts estimate next quarter's EPS. Stock prices reflect years of expected growth. These measure completely different things.

You can beat this quarter's estimate and still be unlikely to deliver what your valuation demands i.e. what your stock price implies. It's like celebrating a B+ when you need an A average to pass. The celebration is premature.

The growth rate indicated by the stock price is the grade you actually need. Analyst estimates are the grade you told everyone to expect.

Why “Great” Earnings Trigger Selloffs

When stocks fall after beating estimates, the market is being mathematical, not irrational. The beat wasn't enough to justify the price.

This is where most analysis fails. Everyone asks whether the company beat the estimate. Nobody asks what is the probability the company will fail to deliver the growth its stock price indicates.

We call this probability the h-factor—the likelihood a company fails to deliver growth its current price demands. High h-factor companies can beat estimates every quarter and still disappoint investors. The estimates were never the real bar. The price was.

Math Beats Theater Every Time

A company at 40 times earnings needs vastly different growth than one at 15 times earnings. No estimate beat changes that math. The company priced for perfection must deliver perfection—not beat a sandbagged number.

That's why we don't celebrate earnings beats. We measure probability of failing to deliver priced-in growth. It's avoiding the losers versus picking the winners. When 75% of companies beat estimates but far fewer justify their valuations, avoiding the losers is where alpha lives.

The Better Question for Next Earnings Season

Skip the beat-miss headlines. When clients see stocks fall after “great” earnings, you have the answer: The earnings weren't the problem. The expectations were.

The company you want isn't the estimate-beater. It's the one with low h-factor risk—most likely to deliver growth its price implies. Known information only. No forecasts, no analyst games, no theater.

Just math.

The estimate game is subject to vague and ambiguous information that humans interpret incorrectly. The h-factor measures probability based on what we know: stock price plus current financials. That's the difference between playing Wall Street's game and winning your own.

Your clients don't need another explanation of rigged estimates. They need a better measure of what matters: Can this company deliver the growth its price demands?

How much h-factor risk is hiding in your portfolio? To see how much, go to avoidthelosers.com to request free access to the h-factor platform.

For important disclosure information please click here.

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Disclosures

This document is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. We discuss general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic or market conditions and this should not be construed as research, securities recommendations or investment advice. Investors are urged to consult with their financial advisors before buying or selling any securities. Any forecasts or predictions are subject to high levels of uncertainty that may affect actual performance. Accordingly, all such predictions should be viewed as merely representative of a broad range of possible outcomes.

No client or prospective client should assume that any information presented in this document serves as the receipt of, or a substitute for, personalized individual advice from New Age Alpha or any other investment professional. Any charts, graphs or tables used in this fact sheet are for illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as providing investment advice and should not be construed by a client or a prospective client as a solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Current and future results may be lower or higher than those shown. An investor in the strategy may experience a loss. Information contained herein does not reflect the actual performance of the strategy. All research and data is simulated and should not be considered indicative of the skill of New Age Alpha. You cannot invest directly in an index. This presentation does not include the deduction of any fees and expenses because an index does not have any such fees or expenses, such as management fees or transactions costs. Investments in securities will generally include fees and expenses that will decrease investment returns. The performance results reflect the reinvestment of dividends and interest.

Human FactorTM “h-factorTM” scores measure the probability that, according to the Human Factor algorithm, a company cannot deliver the growth necessary to support its stock price and are not alone a recommendation about how to invest. The h-factor is a risk that comes from humans interpreting vague or ambiguous information in a systematically incorrect way. We believe that the h-factor causes stocks to be mispriced. We measure how the h-factor affects stock prices to identify which stocks are over or underpriced. We apply our methodology to over 4000 stocks and global indexes to identify a risk that impacts stock prices and is caused by human behavior. Investments not included in the h-factor tool may have characteristics similar or superior to those being analyzed. The accuracy of the h-factor is materially reliant on the integrity of the information utilized in the calculations, including any assumptions and or interpretations made by the user about the data. Data discrepancies, user assumptions, and data input by user can all contribute to differing outcomes. The underlying assumptions and processes presented herein are subject to change. Furthermore, any h-factor score referenced herein is a snapshot taken at a particular point in time and any analysis or information contained in such score is outdated and should not be relied upon as investment advice as such information may have materially changed since publication.


TRADEMARKS

All New Age Alpha trademarks are owned by New Age Alpha LLC. All other company or product names mentioned herein, including S&P®, Dow Jones®, and GICS are the property of their respective owners and should not be deemed to be an endorsement of any New Age Alpha product, portfolio or strategy. S&P® is a registered trademark of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC ("SPFS").

THIRD PARTY SOURCES

Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. It has been prepared solely for informational purposes on an “as is” basis and New Age Alpha does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. Investors should be aware of the risks associated with data sources and quantitative processes used in our investment management process. Errors may exist in data acquired from third party vendors.

DEFINITIONS

The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged market capitalization weighted index of 500 of the largest capitalized U.S. domiciled companies. The Leading Economic Index (LEI), is an index published monthly by The Conference Board. It is used to predict the direction of global economic movements in future months. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or the ‘VIX’ is a measure of the expected volatility of the US stock market. Market momentum is the rate at which the price of a security or market is changing and is measured using the S&P 500 Total Return Index. The NAA U.S. Large-Cap Core Index consists of 100 stocks selected by the New Age Alpha’s h-factor methodology from the S&P 500 Index and is calculated and published by S&P Dow Jones Indices. The NAA Allocation Index dynamically adjusts its allocation between equity, debt, and 100% cash, and is calculated and published by S&P Dow Jones Indices. The NAA USD High Yield Corporate Bond Index consists of 100 bonds selected by New Age Alpha’s h-factor methodology from the S&P Global USD High Yield Corporate Bond Index and is calculated and published by S&P Dow Jones Indices. The S&P U.S. Treasury Bond Current 2-Year Index is a one-security index comprising the most recently issued 2-year U.S. Treasury note or bond. The iBoxx USD Liquid Investment Grade Index consists of liquid USD investment grade bonds, which provide a balanced representation of the USD liquid investment grade corporate bond universe.



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