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Overvalued? Not if you’re looking at the right numbers.


It’s the oldest panic in the book: “The market’s overvalued!”

But is it? A few stocks have run hot, narratives have picked up steam, and next thing you know, we’re talking bubbles. Right now, it’s AI and many have been quick to draw comparisons to 1999.

I think that’s premature.

The real issue isn’t AI, or any one sector. It’s how quickly fear takes hold when expectations start to outrun evidence. That’s why I always go back to the math.

We use the h-factor1 to evaluate risk through a very specific lens: What’s the probability a company won’t deliver the growth its price implies? It doesn’t speculate. It doesn’t forecast. It just measures disconnects between price and reality.

And in mid-November (11.14.2025) with the AI bubble chatter at full volume, 346 companies in the S&P 500 had an h-factor score below 50%. That means most of the market, by our math, is more likely than not to meet expectations.

Only 149 names sit on the wrong side of that line.

To me, that’s not broad overvaluation. That’s misperception.

If you really want to talk yourself into a correction, there are plenty of outdated valuation measures that'll help you do it. The problem is they throw the baby out with the bathwater. Just because a handful of companies might – and I say might – be overvalued doesn’t mean the whole market is.

So, what should you do? Well, it’s not possible to guess where the market goes next. Rather, focus on avoiding the companies least likely to meet expectations, and if the market does correct, we believe you should get ready to buy.

Remember, valuation isn’t a multiple. It’s a belief shaped by behavior, amplified by headlines. That’s why we built a math-based process to help remove the noise and flag where prices may be getting ahead of reality.

We’re not trying to guess where the market goes next. We’re focused on avoiding the companies least likely to meet expectations.

How much h-factor risk is hiding in your portfolio?
To see how much, go to avoidthelosers.com to request free access to the h-factor platform.

Mentions of any h-factor scores in this post are only to illustrate the h-factor and current market conditions.

For important disclosure information please click here.

1The h-factor is a 0–100% risk score showing the probability that a company will fail to deliver the growth already built into its stock price. A higher score means greater risk because investor behavior has driven the price beyond what the company’s history suggests it can deliver.

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What is the h-factor?

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Disclosures

This document is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. We discuss general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic or market conditions and this should not be construed as research, securities recommendations or investment advice. Investors are urged to consult with their financial advisors before buying or selling any securities. Any forecasts or predictions are subject to high levels of uncertainty that may affect actual performance. Accordingly, all such predictions should be viewed as merely representative of a broad range of possible outcomes.

No client or prospective client should assume that any information presented in this document serves as the receipt of, or a substitute for, personalized individual advice from New Age Alpha or any other investment professional. Any charts, graphs or tables used in this fact sheet are for illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as providing investment advice and should not be construed by a client or a prospective client as a solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Current and future results may be lower or higher than those shown. An investor in the strategy may experience a loss. Information contained herein does not reflect the actual performance of the strategy. All research and data is simulated and should not be considered indicative of the skill of New Age Alpha. You cannot invest directly in an index. This presentation does not include the deduction of any fees and expenses because an index does not have any such fees or expenses, such as management fees or transactions costs. Investments in securities will generally include fees and expenses that will decrease investment returns. The performance results reflect the reinvestment of dividends and interest.

Human FactorTM “h-factorTM” scores measure the probability that, according to the Human Factor algorithm, a company cannot deliver the growth necessary to support its stock price and are not alone a recommendation about how to invest. The h-factor is a risk that comes from humans interpreting vague or ambiguous information in a systematically incorrect way. We believe that the h-factor causes stocks to be mispriced. We measure how the h-factor affects stock prices to identify which stocks are over or underpriced. We apply our methodology to over 4000 stocks and global indexes to identify a risk that impacts stock prices and is caused by human behavior. Investments not included in the h-factor tool may have characteristics similar or superior to those being analyzed. The accuracy of the h-factor is materially reliant on the integrity of the information utilized in the calculations, including any assumptions and or interpretations made by the user about the data. Data discrepancies, user assumptions, and data input by user can all contribute to differing outcomes. The underlying assumptions and processes presented herein are subject to change. Furthermore, any h-factor score referenced herein is a snapshot taken at a particular point in time and any analysis or information contained in such score is outdated and should not be relied upon as investment advice as such information may have materially changed since publication.


TRADEMARKS

All New Age Alpha trademarks are owned by New Age Alpha LLC. All other company or product names mentioned herein, including S&P®, Dow Jones®, and GICS are the property of their respective owners and should not be deemed to be an endorsement of any New Age Alpha product, portfolio or strategy. S&P® is a registered trademark of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC ("SPFS").

THIRD PARTY SOURCES

Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. It has been prepared solely for informational purposes on an “as is” basis and New Age Alpha does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. Investors should be aware of the risks associated with data sources and quantitative processes used in our investment management process. Errors may exist in data acquired from third party vendors.

DEFINITIONS

The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged market capitalization weighted index of 500 of the largest capitalized U.S. domiciled companies. The Leading Economic Index (LEI), is an index published monthly by The Conference Board. It is used to predict the direction of global economic movements in future months. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or the ‘VIX’ is a measure of the expected volatility of the US stock market. Market momentum is the rate at which the price of a security or market is changing and is measured using the S&P 500 Total Return Index. The NAA U.S. Large-Cap Core Index consists of 100 stocks selected by the New Age Alpha’s h-factor methodology from the S&P 500 Index and is calculated and published by S&P Dow Jones Indices. The NAA Allocation Index dynamically adjusts its allocation between equity, debt, and 100% cash, and is calculated and published by S&P Dow Jones Indices. The NAA USD High Yield Corporate Bond Index consists of 100 bonds selected by New Age Alpha’s h-factor methodology from the S&P Global USD High Yield Corporate Bond Index and is calculated and published by S&P Dow Jones Indices. The S&P U.S. Treasury Bond Current 2-Year Index is a one-security index comprising the most recently issued 2-year U.S. Treasury note or bond. The iBoxx USD Liquid Investment Grade Index consists of liquid USD investment grade bonds, which provide a balanced representation of the USD liquid investment grade corporate bond universe.



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