It’s the oldest panic in the book: “The market’s overvalued!”
But is it? A few stocks have run hot, narratives have picked up steam, and next thing you know, we’re talking bubbles. Right now, it’s AI and many have been quick to draw comparisons to 1999.
I think that’s premature.
The real issue isn’t AI, or any one sector. It’s how quickly fear takes hold when expectations start to outrun evidence. That’s why I always go back to the math.
We use the h-factor1 to evaluate risk through a very specific lens: What’s the probability a company won’t deliver the growth its price implies? It doesn’t speculate. It doesn’t forecast. It just measures disconnects between price and reality.
And in mid-November (11.14.2025) with the AI bubble chatter at full volume, 346 companies in the S&P 500 had an h-factor score below 50%. That means most of the market, by our math, is more likely than not to meet expectations.
Only 149 names sit on the wrong side of that line.
To me, that’s not broad overvaluation. That’s misperception.
If you really want to talk yourself into a correction, there are plenty of outdated valuation measures that'll help you do it. The problem is they throw the baby out with the bathwater. Just because a handful of companies might – and I say might – be overvalued doesn’t mean the whole market is.
So, what should you do? Well, it’s not possible to guess where the market goes next. Rather, focus on avoiding the companies least likely to meet expectations, and if the market does correct, we believe you should get ready to buy.
Remember, valuation isn’t a multiple. It’s a belief shaped by behavior, amplified by headlines. That’s why we built a math-based process to help remove the noise and flag where prices may be getting ahead of reality.
We’re not trying to guess where the market goes next. We’re focused on avoiding the companies least likely to meet expectations.
How much h-factor risk is hiding in your portfolio?
To see how much, go to avoidthelosers.com to request free access to the h-factor platform.
Mentions of any h-factor scores in this post are only to illustrate the h-factor and current market conditions.
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1The h-factor™ is a 0–100% risk score showing the probability that a company will fail to deliver the growth already built into its stock price. A higher score means greater risk because investor behavior has driven the price beyond what the company’s history suggests it can deliver.
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