iv id="side-bar" class="side-bar header-two">
Loading...

CIO Perspective The Price of Failure Is Already in Your Portfolio.


In 2021, Peloton traded at $167 per share. The stock was priced for hyper-growth: a home fitness revolution, subscription revenue scaling exponentially, a brand synonymous with premium wellness.

By mid-2022, it was under $10.

Before the collapse, Peloton's h-factor was above 75%. The probability the company would fail to deliver the revenue growth indicated by its stock price was three in four.

The market didn't care. The narrative was too good. Investors filled the information gaps with optimism.

When reality reasserted itself, the stock lost 94% of its value.

That's not hindsight. That's behavioral overpricing risk—and it was measurable before the crash.

The Invisible Tax

Most portfolios contain a hidden tax: stocks priced not for what companies can deliver, but for what investors hope they'll deliver.

This is uncompensated risk. You're not paid to take it. It doesn't show up in a stock's beta. Diversification doesn't eliminate it. And when expectations run ahead of reality, someone pays the price.

If you can't measure it, it's probably you.

What You See Is All There Is

Nobel Prize winner, Daniel Kahneman, in his iconic book Thinking, Fast and Slow, described a cognitive bias he called WYSIATI: What You See Is All There Is.

Our brains construct coherent stories from incomplete information. When data is scarce or vague and ambiguous, we fill the gaps with assumptions. We make the narrative work.

In markets, this shows up as overpricing.

A stock with limited financial history gets priced for a compelling vision. A company with inconsistent revenue gets priced for a turnaround story. A speculative play gets priced for disruption.

The price assumes growth. The fundamentals don't support it. But the story feels right, so the stock climbs.

Until it doesn't.

The h-factor Identifies It

The h-factor® is a probability-based metric that is designed to measure one thing: the probability a company will fail to deliver the revenue growth indicated by its stock price.

It's calculated using only known information: the price and the financial statements. No forecasts. No narratives. No assumptions about the future.

This is a calculation about right now. Not a prediction about next quarter or next year—a probability about whether the price today reflects realistic growth or behavioral overpricing.

Over 20 years of evidence:
  • The lowest h-factor stocks regularly outperform the highest h-factor stocks consistently
  • They generally do so with lower volatility and higher risk-adjusted returns
The h-factor makes behavioral risk visible. It quantifies what others ignore. It turns “market sentiment” into a measurable probability.

The Fiduciary Implication

Here's what matters: behavioral overpricing risk is knowable and avoidable.

You can't predict which stocks will outperform. But you can identify which stocks are priced for growth they're unlikely to deliver—and avoid them.

That's not speculation. That's actuarial discipline. And increasingly, it's a fiduciary expectation.

Clients are starting to ask better questions:
  • Is my portfolio diversified against behavioral risk?
  • Are any of my stocks priced for unrealistic growth?
  • What's the probability each position will deliver?
If you don't have answers, someone else will.

Avoid the Losers

The investment industry is built on the idea that success comes from picking winners. But the evidence suggests otherwise.

Success comes from avoiding the losers—stocks priced for expectations their fundamentals can't support.

Peloton isn't an outlier. It's a example of a pattern that repeats across every market cycle. High h-factor stocks disappoint more often than they deliver. And by the time the narrative breaks, the damage is done.

The only solution is to avoid the risk before it materializes.

DOWNLOAD ARTICLE

Related reading

Research tools

SPACE demo

What is the h-factor?

Investment management reimagined

Related reading

Research tools

SPACE demo

What is the h-factor?

Investment management reimagined

Ready for a deeper dive?

Request access to the h-factor System – our online tool that helps you discover a stock,
fund or index’s h-factor and create portfolios that help you to avoid the losers

Alternate Text

Disclosures

This document is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. We discuss general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic or market conditions and this should not be construed as research, securities recommendations or investment advice. Investors are urged to consult with their financial advisors before buying or selling any securities. Any forecasts or predictions are subject to high levels of uncertainty that may affect actual performance. Accordingly, all such predictions should be viewed as merely representative of a broad range of possible outcomes.

No client or prospective client should assume that any information presented in this document serves as the receipt of, or a substitute for, personalized individual advice from New Age Alpha or any other investment professional. Any charts, graphs or tables used in this fact sheet are for illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as providing investment advice and should not be construed by a client or a prospective client as a solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Current and future results may be lower or higher than those shown. An investor in the strategy may experience a loss. Information contained herein does not reflect the actual performance of the strategy. All research and data is simulated and should not be considered indicative of the skill of New Age Alpha. You cannot invest directly in an index. This presentation does not include the deduction of any fees and expenses because an index does not have any such fees or expenses, such as management fees or transactions costs. Investments in securities will generally include fees and expenses that will decrease investment returns. The performance results reflect the reinvestment of dividends and interest.

Human FactorTM “h-factorTM” scores measure the probability that, according to the Human Factor algorithm, a company cannot deliver the growth necessary to support its stock price and are not alone a recommendation about how to invest. The h-factor is a risk that comes from humans interpreting vague or ambiguous information in a systematically incorrect way. We believe that the h-factor causes stocks to be mispriced. We measure how the h-factor affects stock prices to identify which stocks are over or underpriced. We apply our methodology to over 4000 stocks and global indexes to identify a risk that impacts stock prices and is caused by human behavior. Investments not included in the h-factor tool may have characteristics similar or superior to those being analyzed. The accuracy of the h-factor is materially reliant on the integrity of the information utilized in the calculations, including any assumptions and or interpretations made by the user about the data. Data discrepancies, user assumptions, and data input by user can all contribute to differing outcomes. The underlying assumptions and processes presented herein are subject to change. Furthermore, any h-factor score referenced herein is a snapshot taken at a particular point in time and any analysis or information contained in such score is outdated and should not be relied upon as investment advice as such information may have materially changed since publication.


TRADEMARKS

All New Age Alpha trademarks are owned by New Age Alpha LLC. All other company or product names mentioned herein, including S&P®, Dow Jones®, and GICS are the property of their respective owners and should not be deemed to be an endorsement of any New Age Alpha product, portfolio or strategy. S&P® is a registered trademark of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC ("SPFS").

THIRD PARTY SOURCES

Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. It has been prepared solely for informational purposes on an “as is” basis and New Age Alpha does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. Investors should be aware of the risks associated with data sources and quantitative processes used in our investment management process. Errors may exist in data acquired from third party vendors.

DEFINITIONS

The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged market capitalization weighted index of 500 of the largest capitalized U.S. domiciled companies. The Leading Economic Index (LEI), is an index published monthly by The Conference Board. It is used to predict the direction of global economic movements in future months. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or the ‘VIX’ is a measure of the expected volatility of the US stock market. Market momentum is the rate at which the price of a security or market is changing and is measured using the S&P 500 Total Return Index. The NAA U.S. Large-Cap Core Index consists of 100 stocks selected by the New Age Alpha’s h-factor methodology from the S&P 500 Index and is calculated and published by S&P Dow Jones Indices. The NAA Allocation Index dynamically adjusts its allocation between equity, debt, and 100% cash, and is calculated and published by S&P Dow Jones Indices. The NAA USD High Yield Corporate Bond Index consists of 100 bonds selected by New Age Alpha’s h-factor methodology from the S&P Global USD High Yield Corporate Bond Index and is calculated and published by S&P Dow Jones Indices. The S&P U.S. Treasury Bond Current 2-Year Index is a one-security index comprising the most recently issued 2-year U.S. Treasury note or bond. The iBoxx USD Liquid Investment Grade Index consists of liquid USD investment grade bonds, which provide a balanced representation of the USD liquid investment grade corporate bond universe.



© Copyright 2025 New Age Alpha LLC

CC: NAA10554

© 2026 New Age Alpha LLC. All Rights Reserved.   CC: NAA10183Q | SKU: 10234