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The Risk Diversification Can't Fix

Every advisor knows the first rule: diversify. Spread risk across sectors, geographies, market caps.

Every advisor knows the first rule: diversify. Spread risk across sectors, geographies, market caps. It's Portfolio Management 101, and it works—against company-specific risk.

But there's a risk diversification can't touch.

It's the risk that shows up when expectations run ahead of reality. When investors fill information gaps with stories instead of facts. When a stock gets priced not for what the company can deliver, but for what the crowd wants it to deliver. This is behavioral overpricing risk. And here's what makes it dangerous: it's uncompensated and non-diversifiable.

The Diversification Paradox

Traditional portfolio theory assumes risks are independent. That assumption breaks when the risk is human behavior itself. Company A's problems shouldn't correlate with Company B's problems if they're in different industries.

But behavioral overpricing doesn't work that way.

When investors across the market make the same mistake at the same time (overpricing stocks with vague and ambiguous information) diversification offers no protection. This is not a market-timing framework. It’s a pricing-discipline framework. You can own 50 stocks and still be exposed to the same behavioral risk in each one.

If you own the index, you own the overpriced stocks. Spreading them around doesn't make them safer.

What the h-factor™ Measures

The h-factor™ is a probability-based metric that measures one thing: the probability a company will fail to deliver the revenue growth indicated by its stock price.

It's scored from 0% to 100%. A score of 75% means there's a three-in-four chance the company won't grow fast enough to justify its current valuation.

This isn't a forecast about the future. It's a calculation about right now, using only known information: the stock price and the company's financial statements.

The mechanism behind behavioral overpricing is what Daniel Kahneman, recipient of the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciencess, called WYSIATI: What You See Is All There Is. When hard data is scarce, our brains fill the gaps. We construct narratives. We assume growth will continue. We price stocks for optimism, not evidence.

The h-factor identifies when that's happened.

Why You Can't Diversify It Away

Here's the problem: behavioral overpricing is a systematic risk caused by how humans process vague and ambiguous information. It shows up across the market simultaneously.

In bull markets, it creeps into growth stocks, speculative plays, and “story stocks” with thin fundamentals. In sector rotations, it concentrates in whatever narrative is hot.

You can't eliminate it by adding more positions. The only solution is to avoid the losers before they disappoint.

Over more than 20 years of market cycles, low h-factor stocks consistently outperform high h-factor stocks. Not because we're predicting which companies will succeed—but because we're avoiding stocks priced for growth they're unlikely to deliver.

That's not speculation. That's actuarial discipline applied to public markets.

The Choice

You can own a diversified portfolio of overpriced stocks.

Or you can own a portfolio that avoids uncompensated behavioral risk.

The difference shows up when the narratives break and reality reasserts itself. By then, diversification won't help—because the risk was never in individual companies. It was in how the market priced all of them.

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What is the h-factor?

Investment management reimagined

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Disclosures

This document is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. We discuss general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic or market conditions and this should not be construed as research, securities recommendations or investment advice. Investors are urged to consult with their financial advisors before buying or selling any securities. Any forecasts or predictions are subject to high levels of uncertainty that may affect actual performance. Accordingly, all such predictions should be viewed as merely representative of a broad range of possible outcomes.

No client or prospective client should assume that any information presented in this document serves as the receipt of, or a substitute for, personalized individual advice from New Age Alpha or any other investment professional. Any charts, graphs or tables used in this fact sheet are for illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as providing investment advice and should not be construed by a client or a prospective client as a solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Current and future results may be lower or higher than those shown. An investor in the strategy may experience a loss. Information contained herein does not reflect the actual performance of the strategy. All research and data is simulated and should not be considered indicative of the skill of New Age Alpha. You cannot invest directly in an index. This presentation does not include the deduction of any fees and expenses because an index does not have any such fees or expenses, such as management fees or transactions costs. Investments in securities will generally include fees and expenses that will decrease investment returns. The performance results reflect the reinvestment of dividends and interest.

Human FactorTM “h-factorTM” scores measure the probability that, according to the Human Factor algorithm, a company cannot deliver the growth necessary to support its stock price and are not alone a recommendation about how to invest. The h-factor is a risk that comes from humans interpreting vague or ambiguous information in a systematically incorrect way. We believe that the h-factor causes stocks to be mispriced. We measure how the h-factor affects stock prices to identify which stocks are over or underpriced. We apply our methodology to over 4000 stocks and global indexes to identify a risk that impacts stock prices and is caused by human behavior. Investments not included in the h-factor tool may have characteristics similar or superior to those being analyzed. The accuracy of the h-factor is materially reliant on the integrity of the information utilized in the calculations, including any assumptions and or interpretations made by the user about the data. Data discrepancies, user assumptions, and data input by user can all contribute to differing outcomes. The underlying assumptions and processes presented herein are subject to change. Furthermore, any h-factor score referenced herein is a snapshot taken at a particular point in time and any analysis or information contained in such score is outdated and should not be relied upon as investment advice as such information may have materially changed since publication.


TRADEMARKS

All New Age Alpha trademarks are owned by New Age Alpha LLC. All other company or product names mentioned herein, including S&P®, Dow Jones®, and GICS are the property of their respective owners and should not be deemed to be an endorsement of any New Age Alpha product, portfolio or strategy. S&P® is a registered trademark of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC ("SPFS").

THIRD PARTY SOURCES

Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. It has been prepared solely for informational purposes on an “as is” basis and New Age Alpha does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. Investors should be aware of the risks associated with data sources and quantitative processes used in our investment management process. Errors may exist in data acquired from third party vendors.

DEFINITIONS

The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged market capitalization weighted index of 500 of the largest capitalized U.S. domiciled companies. The Leading Economic Index (LEI), is an index published monthly by The Conference Board. It is used to predict the direction of global economic movements in future months. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or the ‘VIX’ is a measure of the expected volatility of the US stock market. Market momentum is the rate at which the price of a security or market is changing and is measured using the S&P 500 Total Return Index. The NAA U.S. Large-Cap Core Index consists of 100 stocks selected by the New Age Alpha’s h-factor methodology from the S&P 500 Index and is calculated and published by S&P Dow Jones Indices. The NAA Allocation Index dynamically adjusts its allocation between equity, debt, and 100% cash, and is calculated and published by S&P Dow Jones Indices. The NAA USD High Yield Corporate Bond Index consists of 100 bonds selected by New Age Alpha’s h-factor methodology from the S&P Global USD High Yield Corporate Bond Index and is calculated and published by S&P Dow Jones Indices. The S&P U.S. Treasury Bond Current 2-Year Index is a one-security index comprising the most recently issued 2-year U.S. Treasury note or bond. The iBoxx USD Liquid Investment Grade Index consists of liquid USD investment grade bonds, which provide a balanced representation of the USD liquid investment grade corporate bond universe.



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