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Too big to miss. Too risky to ignore.

Key takeaways

- Tariffs are shifting cost structures

- Extreme volatility hit the market

- Many portfolios are still positioned for pre-tariff conditions

- NAA Allocation Index dynamically shifts risk to suit conditions

The numbers

- S&P 500:  fell 13.57% (03/24 – 04/08)

- Allocation index: fell 9.03% (03/24 – 04/08)


Everyone’s talking about the Magnificent Seven. But the real concentration risk runs deeper.

Today, the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 – names like Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon – make up more than 30% of the index’s value.

These companies now power the global economy in ways that can ground airlines and freeze supply chains, as we saw recently when AWS and Azure stumbled.

Asset managers are in a double bind: they can’t ignore them, and they can’t afford to be over-exposed to them.

We’re in the same boat. New Age Alpha holds these stocks in some of our funds, despite the concentration risk. We don’t hold them because we love them. We hold them because, whether you like it or not, those names shape how nearly every portfolio behaves.
In our NAA Large Core strategy, for instance, we anchor our portfolio with these 10 core stocks. They form the foundation of this strategy, keeping it broadly aligned with the benchmark’s structure.

Through a disciplined, data-driven methodology, we seek to capture alpha opportunities from the remaining 490 stocks in the S&P 500.

This disciplined methodology reveals the h-factor: an innovative risk measure that shows the likelihood that a company will fail to deliver the growth implied by its stock price. The higher the number – on a scale from 0%-100% – the higher the probability that human behavior has inflated the stock price beyond what it can deliver.

To show this in practice, have a look at the performance of our U.S. Large-Cap Core Strategy with and without the top 10 holdings. Since the remaining 90 stocks are selected using h-factor scores, we aim to avoid overpriced risk from the rest of the index and this highlights where we believe real outperformance is generated.

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What’s worth remembering here is that the S&P 500 isn’t an equal club of 500 companies. It’s market-cap weighted, which means the bigger a company’s total market value, the more influence it has on the index’s performance.

Achieving alpha, we believe, isn’t about avoiding these giants. It’s about recognizing that their sheer size distorts the rest of the index.

Our process is uncompromising in managing this risk as even a top 10 stock will be excluded if its h-factor score lands in the worst 20%.

The h-factor gives investors a way to see that hidden risk – and to act on it.

How much h-factor risk is hiding in your portfolio?

To see how much, go to avoidthelosers.com to request free access to the h-factor platform.

Mentions of any h-factor scores in this post are only to illustrate the h-factor and current market conditions.

For important disclosure information please click here


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Key takeaways

- Tariffs are shifting cost structures

- Extreme volatility hit the market

- Many portfolios are still positioned for pre-tariff conditions

- NAA Allocation Index dynamically shifts risk to suit conditions

The numbers

- S&P 500:  fell 13.57% (03/24 – 04/08)

- Allocation index: fell 9.03% (03/24 – 04/08)

Related reading

Research tools

SPACE demo

What is the h-factor?

Investment management reimagined

Related reading

Research tools

SPACE demo

What is the h-factor?

Investment management reimagined

Ready for a deeper dive?

Request access to the h-factor System – our online tool that helps you discover a stock,
fund or index’s h-factor and create portfolios that help you to avoid the losers

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Disclosures

This document is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. We discuss general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic or market conditions and this should not be construed as research, securities recommendations or investment advice. Investors are urged to consult with their financial advisors before buying or selling any securities. Any forecasts or predictions are subject to high levels of uncertainty that may affect actual performance. Accordingly, all such predictions should be viewed as merely representative of a broad range of possible outcomes.

No client or prospective client should assume that any information presented in this document serves as the receipt of, or a substitute for, personalized individual advice from New Age Alpha or any other investment professional. Any charts, graphs or tables used in this fact sheet are for illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as providing investment advice and should not be construed by a client or a prospective client as a solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Current and future results may be lower or higher than those shown. An investor in the strategy may experience a loss. Information contained herein does not reflect the actual performance of the strategy. All research and data is simulated and should not be considered indicative of the skill of New Age Alpha. You cannot invest directly in an index. This presentation does not include the deduction of any fees and expenses because an index does not have any such fees or expenses, such as management fees or transactions costs. Investments in securities will generally include fees and expenses that will decrease investment returns. The performance results reflect the reinvestment of dividends and interest.

Human FactorTM “h-factorTM” scores measure the probability that, according to the Human Factor algorithm, a company cannot deliver the growth necessary to support its stock price and are not alone a recommendation about how to invest. The h-factor is a risk that comes from humans interpreting vague or ambiguous information in a systematically incorrect way. We believe that the h-factor causes stocks to be mispriced. We measure how the h-factor affects stock prices to identify which stocks are over or underpriced. We apply our methodology to over 4000 stocks and global indexes to identify a risk that impacts stock prices and is caused by human behavior. Investments not included in the h-factor tool may have characteristics similar or superior to those being analyzed. The accuracy of the h-factor is materially reliant on the integrity of the information utilized in the calculations, including any assumptions and or interpretations made by the user about the data. Data discrepancies, user assumptions, and data input by user can all contribute to differing outcomes. The underlying assumptions and processes presented herein are subject to change. Furthermore, any h-factor score referenced herein is a snapshot taken at a particular point in time and any analysis or information contained in such score is outdated and should not be relied upon as investment advice as such information may have materially changed since publication.


TRADEMARKS

All New Age Alpha trademarks are owned by New Age Alpha LLC. All other company or product names mentioned herein, including S&P®, Dow Jones®, and GICS are the property of their respective owners and should not be deemed to be an endorsement of any New Age Alpha product, portfolio or strategy. S&P® is a registered trademark of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC ("SPFS").

THIRD PARTY SOURCES

Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. It has been prepared solely for informational purposes on an “as is” basis and New Age Alpha does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. Investors should be aware of the risks associated with data sources and quantitative processes used in our investment management process. Errors may exist in data acquired from third party vendors.

DEFINITIONS

The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged market capitalization weighted index of 500 of the largest capitalized U.S. domiciled companies. The Leading Economic Index (LEI), is an index published monthly by The Conference Board. It is used to predict the direction of global economic movements in future months. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or the ‘VIX’ is a measure of the expected volatility of the US stock market. Market momentum is the rate at which the price of a security or market is changing and is measured using the S&P 500 Total Return Index. The NAA U.S. Large-Cap Core Index consists of 100 stocks selected by the New Age Alpha’s h-factor methodology from the S&P 500 Index and is calculated and published by S&P Dow Jones Indices. The NAA Allocation Index dynamically adjusts its allocation between equity, debt, and 100% cash, and is calculated and published by S&P Dow Jones Indices. The NAA USD High Yield Corporate Bond Index consists of 100 bonds selected by New Age Alpha’s h-factor methodology from the S&P Global USD High Yield Corporate Bond Index and is calculated and published by S&P Dow Jones Indices. The S&P U.S. Treasury Bond Current 2-Year Index is a one-security index comprising the most recently issued 2-year U.S. Treasury note or bond. The iBoxx USD Liquid Investment Grade Index consists of liquid USD investment grade bonds, which provide a balanced representation of the USD liquid investment grade corporate bond universe.



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